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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2022


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2022

IA. Evaluation of Photo voltaic Energetic Areas and Exercise from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Photo voltaic exercise has been at average ranges for the previous 24 hours. The biggest photo voltaic occasion of the interval was an M1 occasion noticed at 14/1019Z from Area 3098 (N18W65). There are presently 3 numbered sunspot areas on the disk.

IB. Photo voltaic Exercise Forecast: Photo voltaic exercise is predicted to be low with an opportunity for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

II. Geophysical Exercise Abstract 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic discipline has been at quiet ranges for the previous 24 hours. Photo voltaic wind pace reached a peak of 340 km/s at 14/1945Z. Whole IMF reached 11 nT at 14/1919Z. The utmost southward element of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/1932Z. Protons higher than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak stage of two pfu at 14/0640Z. Electrons higher than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak stage of 15800 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Exercise Forecast: The geomagnetic discipline is predicted to be at quiet ranges on day one (15 Sep), quiet to energetic ranges on day two (16 Sep) and unsettled to energetic ranges on day three (17 Sep). Protons have a slight probability of crossing the edge on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

III. Occasion chances 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF inexperienced

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Noticed 14 Sep 144
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 155/150/145
90 Day Imply 14 Sep 123

V. Geomagnetic And Indices
Noticed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 006/005-012/015-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Exercise Possibilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Center Latitudes
Energetic 15/30/40
Minor Storm 05/10/20
Main-severe storm 01/01/05
B. Excessive Latitudes
Energetic 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Main-severe storm 20/30/35

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